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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime underperformers rising together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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