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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.