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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."